“A mechanism for keeping a door, lid, etc., fastened, typically operated only by a key of a particular form”.  The above mechanism is referred to as a Lock.  You put them on your doors, bikes, and secret diaries.  In theory, nothing can open whatever you’re trying to keep shut when a lock is involved.  A lock is a sure thing. 

When it comes to sports betting, the word “lock” gets thrown around like a hot potato – why no one uses oven mitts is beyond me.  A lock in the sports betting world is a game that cannot miss.  It’s a sure bet.  Is their such a thing? 

If you have been around sports betting for any amount of time, then you have come across that guy.  We can call him Mr. Lock.  Mr. Lock always seems to have some secret intel on why he knows how the game will play out.  Whether he is cousins with the sister’s friend who is dating the older brother of the backup right guard, or he simply has run the game through his high-tech algorithm in his mom’s basement – Mr. Lock has a can’t miss bet.

I want to clarify.  Claiming to have a lock and “having a feeling” is very different.  Please, when sports betting do as little or as much due diligence as you want.  Check the injury reports, record after a loss, and Instagram posts of the point guard’s girlfriend.  But when all that research is said and done, as much as you can convince yourself, don’t pretend to have a lock.  Just have a feeling. 

Feelings are good.  They allow us to use our brain and break down the game.  Don’t even want to have a feeling?  Then be superstitious.  Last four times you wore those butterfly socks your team covered the spread.  You wear those butterfly socks with pride and put a wager on your team.  Just don’t be delusional enough to consider it a lock.  Be smart and tell me where you got those socks.  

Mr. Lock will either be in a video driving a Rolls Royce or be driving a 1998 Toyota Camry.  No hate on the Camry, but his locks actually produced, I think he would upgrade to at least that 2007 with sequential shifting. 

I’m never one to try and judge a book by it’s cover, and partially that’s because reading books is not my cup of tea – and neither is tea – but sometimes using your gut is the best radar.  Mr. Lock can come in many forms, but if he has it all figured out, what makes YOU so special to receive this secret intel?

If you truly want to know what makes you special, well ask that at your own risk.  Asking “what makes you so sure” or “what makes this a lock”?  Well, you have just opened the door to not only insanely off the wall explanations, but you have also given fuel to Mr. Lock.  The more ears he has, the more powerful he becomes.  The tangents will be long and the reasoning will be questionable at best.   

This whole time I have be referring to Sports Betting as Mr. Lock’s tool – which typically is where we find him.  That said, this applies to all “locks” that happen inside the casino too.  The guy who figured out the roulette wheel and knows what color is coming next.  The gal who ‘just knows’ that this slot machine is ready to pay out. 

Have your feelings and make your guesses, but goodness don’t lose money while pretending something is a sure thing. 

We have to close by recognizing that Mr. Lock will win.  Especially with sports betting, there are typically only two sides (teams) to pick, so naturally Mr. Lock can’t lose all the time.  It is a mirage!  Much like The Mirage in Vegas, in the end, Mr. Lock will be closed for business. 

Study up, have fun, and just enjoy betting.  If you take anything away from this, understand that there is no lock.  There is no sure thing.  One of my favorite past times?  Betting against Mr. Lock.